Last year the research firm estimated that the number of advisors in the wirehouse channel will decline from 47,843 at the end of 2014 to 45,580 by end-2016, painting a somewhat brighter picture for the RIA channel (including dually-registered): that headcount will rise from 54,722 to 60,010.

“More than two-thirds of advisors indicate they would prefer the independent broker/dealer, registered investment advisor, or dually registered models if they decided to leave their current firms,” said Kenton Shirk, an associate director at Cerulli, speaking abut the firm's latest report on the sector: Advisor Metrics 2014: Capitalizing on Transitions and Consolidation.

The report projects that the combined asset marketshare of independent advisory channels will outstrip that of the wirehouses by 2019 and, as previously reported, Cerulli believes the continued expansion of the RIA channel is “undeniable” and that there are of course big opportunities to be had from this. With that said, it also raises a number of challenges. For example, while it has been observed for some time now that the independent channel is benefiting from advisor movement, it too is suffering as advisors exit the industry and retire. Another aspect to consider is that the RIA channel can’t always rely on advisor transition to generate growth and thus it must “prove its sustainability” by bringing in new advisors to the industry.

Shirk described the trend as “historical and expected,” attributing it to a rang of factors including the flexibility and autonomy inherent in the independent channel with regard to portfolio construction, operational flexibility, fee structure, and technology.

“The economics can also be appealing to advisors, as payouts are higher and advisors become responsible for their own overhead decisions,” Shirk added. “Independent advisors can build long-term enterprise value in not only their own solo practice, but also in a broader business entity comprised of multiple advisors, staff, and infrastructure.”

He added: “Many independent broker/dealers and custodians have sufficient scale to offer broad and deep service offerings. Now many of the services offered have become commonplace across platforms, such as practice management resources, financial planning support, and investment research.”

In a slightly different outlook on the issue, Aite Group last year said it expects wirehouses and fully disclosed broker-dealers to suffer less erosion of marketshare from 2014 through 2017. Interestingly, it projected lower growth among independent RIAs, discount/online broker-dealers and self-clearing broker-dealers due to heightened industry focus on boosting advisor productivity and streamlining fee-based advisory programs. Additionally, Aite Group's report argued that emerging digital wealth managers, which offer online tools and advice to self-directed investors at a lower cost than full-service providers, will play an increasingly important role in the industry – another trend which has caught the industry's attention in recent months.